Here's a number worth sitting with: OpenAI, the company that put AI on everyone's lips, is currently valued at less than its biggest rival. Anthropic just crossed a $965 billion post-money valuation after its latest fundraise, edging past OpenAI's $852 billion. And now both companies are sprinting toward the same finish line — a public stock market listing.
OpenAI confirmed Monday that it has confidentially submitted a Form S-1 to the SEC, following Anthropic's identical move earlier this month. A confidential filing is essentially a soft launch for an IPO — the paperwork is in, but the juicy details like executive pay, risk factors, and full financials stay locked away until the company decides to go fully public with the document. It's a way to test the regulatory waters without fully exposing yourself to public scrutiny.
The timing matters a lot here. This isn't just two AI companies doing routine corporate housekeeping. It's a legitimately competitive race, and the outcome will shape how Wall Street values the entire AI sector for years. Whichever company debuts first — and at a stronger valuation — gets to set the narrative.
But OpenAI's road to the public markets hasn't been smooth. Reports have surfaced that CFO Sarah Friar has been notably less enthusiastic about the accelerated timeline than CEO Sam Altman. The concerns aren't trivial: missed revenue targets, slower-than-expected user growth, and a compute spending commitment that raises eyebrows. OpenAI originally floated plans to spend $1.4 trillion on compute infrastructure — a figure so large that Altman reportedly got defensive when pressed on it publicly. The company later revised that number down to $600 billion through 2030, which is still an almost incomprehensible amount of money to commit before you've ever sold a share on the open market.
Then there's the SpaceX factor. Elon Musk's rocket company is targeting a June 12 IPO that could raise $80 billion and potentially become the largest public debut in history. OpenAI's listing will inevitably be measured against that spectacle — especially given the tangled web connecting these companies. SpaceX acquired OpenAI competitor xAI, and separately inked a deal with Anthropic worth $15 billion a year for data center access. Meanwhile, the legal dust from the Musk v. Altman trial has barely settled.
What makes this moment genuinely fascinating is that we're watching the AI industry grow up in real time. A year ago, these were private companies burning venture capital and making grand promises. Now they're filing paperwork with the SEC, hiring investor relations teams, and preparing to answer to shareholders every quarter. The freewheeling startup era of AI is ending. The era of quarterly earnings calls is beginning.
Whether investors will treat OpenAI like a transformational technology platform or an extremely expensive bet on future revenue remains the central question. The S-1, when it goes public, will be one of the most-read documents in recent Wall Street history.